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What Are the Swing States of the Future?

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Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s politics chat. The transcript below is lightly edited.


Ameliatd Amelia Thomson DeVeaux, senior journalist: Residents in states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are accustomed to their airwaves being flooded with political advertisements when the presidential election is near. But over the years, there’s actually been a lot of variation in which states have the most power to decide the future commander-in-chief. Only a few years ago, it would have been hard to imagine Arizona and Georgia in the toss-up category — and “as Ohio goes, so goes the nation” was proved wrong in 2020, when President Joe Biden became the first candidate to win the White House without carrying Ohio since 1960.

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