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Hurricane Season: Take Two


A record-warm Atlantic Ocean, possibly competing with the usually mitigating effects of El Niño, has caused scientists at NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center to amend their May annual hurricane outlook, increasing the likelihood of an above normal Atlantic hurricane season from 30% to 60%. The announcement came as part of the update for early August, when the six month season is usually beginning to gain momentum.

Image of Hurricane Don taken by GOES-16 satellite (GOES-East) at 6:20 pm EDT, July 22, 2023 in the Atlantic. Don was the Atlantic hurricane season’s first storm of 2023.


“The main climate factors expected to influence the 2023 Atlantic hurricane activity are the ongoing El Niño and the warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, including record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures,” Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said in a webinar. “More specifically, odds are in excess of 95% that the ongoing El Niño will continue through the autumn of 2023. Typically, El Niño-related changes to the atmosphere inhibit tropical activity in the Atlantic, especially in the western Caribbean and…

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